Coastal Officials Show Varied Levels of Concern Over Sea Rise

Local governments in seaside communities are familiar with the risks of mother nature: from shifting shorelines to damage wrought by hurricanes and tsunamis. In recent years, concerns over potential sea level rise have brought more attention to the challenges of managing coastal communities. CISA’s experts in infrastructure security have warned that even moderate sea level rise could threaten infrastructure by contaminating freshwater supplies and damaging critical systems like broadband and data centers. 

The local elected officials who represent coastal communities often hold the greatest responsibility for deciding what, if any, preventative measures to take. However, we have historically lacked a complete picture of how concerned these local leaders are (or are not) about the issue.  

To address this, CivicPulse, in partnership with Dr. Robert Hines at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, surveyed local elected officials serving communities along the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf coasts.  

Local officials’ concerns over sea rise by 2050 

Experts predict that sea levels along the U.S. coastline will rise 10-12 inches on average by 2050, with significant regional variation: 10-14 inches along the East Coast, 4-8 inches along the West Coast, and 14-18 inches along the Gulf Coast. When coastal elected officials were asked about the likelihood of at least a one-foot rise by 2050 in their communities, responses varied widely. The biggest cluster, 27%, saw such an outcome as very unlikely (see Figure below). These officials may be less inclined to prioritize adaptation efforts in the near future.  

Another significant group—about 20% of officials—described the 1-foot increase scenario as roughly an even chance of happening or not by 2050. While these officials may not view the threat as imminent, they’re much more likely to take some precautionary measures, given the potentially catastrophic consequences for some communities. These could include relatively modest investments, like reinforcing vulnerable stretches of shoreline with riprap or piloting small-scale nature-based solutions. Then perhaps they might put more aggressive contingency plans in their communities’ longer-term strategic planning initiatives. 

Moving up on the spectrum of concern, nearly a quarter of officials (24%) reported they thought a one foot rise in their communities was very likely by 2050. These officials are more likely to implement both larger-scale and more immediate interventions, like beach widening, dune restoration, or reintroducing native species to wetlands. For example, officials in Norfolk, VA collaborated with the state DOT and a construction company to move 14,000 cubic yards of sand from a tunnel expansion site to an eroding beach. 

Some officials in the “sea level rise very likely” camp are also preparing for more severe situations, like sea level of greater than two feet. According to our survey, 16% of coastal officials believe two feet of sea level rise was more likely than not by 2050 in their communities.  These heightened concerns may drive still more ambitious efforts like raising roads, building reefs, and investing in predictive modeling.  

In Miami-Dade County, for example, the long-running Artificial Reef Program places sustainable materials on the ocean floor to help buffer coastlines and support marine ecosystems. In St. George, ME, the local Resilience Committee has developed a 3-D modeling project to map future flood impacts. Similarly, officials in Manchester-by-the-Sea, MA are using  probability-based flood modeling to assess and prepare for long-term risks. 

In the most extreme cases, concerns about sea level rise might result in planned retreats of neighborhoods or entire communities. Historically, such relocations have only occurred in very small towns, like the 250-person town of Shaktoolik, AK and 500-person town of Shishmaref, AK. But officials representing larger communities where relocation may not be feasible, feel more need for substantial investments in an array of solutions. 

Uncertainty over federal funding 

Many officials who have successfully implemented these interventions have relied on state or federal funding. For example, one mayor in a municipality in Washington told us they had successfully secured $30 million dollars from federal and state sources to build a levee in their community.  

But with ongoing uncertainty about the future role of the federal government in funding disaster prevention and relief, local governments may be forced to limit their ambitions. As one city council member in California shared, “without state or federal assistance, most projects will not be feasible. It will be extremely difficult to plan, design, and build projects without non-local assistance. Even high priority projects with public support would be difficult since local government budgets are already constrained.” 

Survey background    

This research brief uses data from a nationally representative survey of local elected policymakers in coastal U.S. townships, municipalities, and county governments serving communities of 1,000 or more. Elected policymakers include top elected officials (e.g., mayor, county executive) and governing board members (e.g., council member, county legislator). Coastal officials refer to the elected officials serving communities in counties adjacent to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf. The survey was fielded from February 26 to April 2, 2025. 230 local elected officials completed the survey.    

Survey text    

In your opinion, what is the percentage chance that seas rise at least 1 foot by 2050? Response options: {0% - 100%; increments of 5%} 

In your opinion, what is the percentage chance that seas rise at least 2 feet by 2050? Response options: {0% - 100%; increments of 5%} 

Press Contact        

Victoria Starbuck     

Research Director  

victoriastarbuck@civicpulse.org     

Additional Resources    

For access to the underlying data for this brief, email us at info@civicpulse.org.